فصلنامه علمی راهبرد

فصلنامه علمی راهبرد

نقش آمریکا در عملکرد شورای امنیت در بحران غزه در پرتو تحلیل نهادیِ کراسنر: بازتنظیم راهبرد منطقه‌ای ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 دانشجوی دکتری روابط بین‌الملل، پردیس بین‌المللی کیش، دانشگاه تهران، ایران.
2 مطالعات منطقه‌ای، دانشکده حقوق و علوم سیاسی،دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.
10.22034/rahbord.2026.568923.1893
چکیده
پژوهش حاضر توضیح می‌دهد چرا شورای امنیت سازمان ملل در بحران غزه (اکتبر ۲۰۲۳ تا اواخر ۲۰۲۵) نتوانست مفهوم «امنیت جمعی» را به محدودیت‌های روشن، الزام‌آور و قابل اجرا تبدیل کند و سپس پیامدهای این ناتوانی را برای بازتنظیم سیاست منطقه‌ای جمهوری اسلامی ایران با تکیه بر واقع‌گرایی تهاجمی بررسی می‌کند. نخست، با بهره‌گیری از نظریه رژیم‌های بین‌المللی کراسنر، شورای امنیت به‌مثابه یک سازوکار نهادی متشکل از اصول، هنجار‌ها، قواعد و رویه‌های تصمیم‌گیری در بستر توزیع قدرت جهانی تحلیل می‌شود؛ ازاین‌رو، کم‌اثری شورا عمدتاً منشأ ساختاری دارد نه صرفاً مدیریتی. نفوذ آمریکا از سه مسیر اصلی اعمال می‌شود: الگوی وتو، شکل‌دِهی پیشینی به پیش‌نویس قطعنامه‌ها تحت سایه تهدید وتو و کنترل رویه‌ای بر دستورکار و فرایند تدوین قطعنامه. عملکرد شورا در دو سطح سنجیده می‌شود: اثربخشی خروجی و اثربخشی پیامدی. برای سنجش بُعد پیامدی، فاصله میان مطالبات شورا و وضعیت میدانیِ منعکس در گزارش‌های سازمان ملل معیار قرار می‌گیرد. یافته‌ها نشان می‌دهد شورا در قبال غزه گزینشی عمل کرده است: قطعنامه‌های مرتبط با کمک‌رسانی و برخی چهارچوب‌های مرحله‌بندی‌شده تصویب شده‌اند؛ اما درخواست‌های توقف فوری و بی‌قیدوشرط درگیری غالباً به سبب وتوی آمریکا یا چانه‌زنی حول ترجیحات واشینگتن ناکام مانده و شکاف میان هنجار‌های بشردوستانه و قواعد اجرایی پایدار شده است. در بخش دوم، مقاله استدلال می‌کند از منظر واقع‌گرایی تهاجمی، این اجرای گزینشی انگیزه ایران را برای کاهش اتکا به مهار نهادی و حرکت به‌سوی بیشینه‌سازی سنجیده اهرم‌های بازدارنده و دیپلماتیک، ازجمله بازدارندگی شبکه‌ای، توانمندی‌های انکاری، دیپلماسی شکاف‌انداز و پیگیری منازعه مشروعیت در مجاری فاقد وتو، تقویت می‌کند
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

The Role of the United States in the Performance of the Security Council in the Gaza Crisis in Light of Krasner's Institutional Analysis: Recalibrating Iran's Regional Strategy

نویسندگان English

Ali Karimi Magham 1
Mohammad Sadegh Koushki 2
1 PhD Candidate in International Relations, Kish International Campus, University of Tehran, Iran.
2 Department of Regional Studies, Faculty of Law and Political Science, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده English

The present study explains why the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) during the Gaza crisis (October 2023 to late 2025) proved unable to translate the concept of "collective security" into clear, binding, and enforceable constraints, and then examines the implications of this institutional pattern for the strategic recalibration of the Islamic Republic of Iran's regional policy through the lens of Offensive Realism. In the first part, the article draws on Stephen Krasner's theory of international regimes to conceptualize the Security Council as a regime-like institutional arrangement composed of principles, norms, rules, and decision-making procedures operating within (and conditioned by) the global distribution of power. On this view, the Council's limited efficacy is primarily structural rather than merely managerial. The argument specifies three principal channels through which U.S. influence is exercised: (1) the observable pattern of veto use; (2) ex ante shaping of draft resolutions under the shadow of a credible veto threat, which narrows the bargaining space and shifts texts toward what is "adoptable"; and (3) procedural control over agenda management and the drafting process, through which the sequencing of options and the framing of outcomes can be steered toward lower-cost commitments. To assess UNSC performance in an analytically tractable way, the study distinguishes between output effectiveness and outcome effectiveness. Output effectiveness refers to the Council's ability to produce authoritative decisions (especially on high-salience issues). In contrast, outcome effectiveness is operationalized through a proxy: the gap between the Council's stated demands and the continuing conflict dynamics and humanitarian emergency as reflected in United Nations humanitarian reporting. The findings indicate a recurrent pattern of selectivity: the Council adopted resolutions focused on humanitarian access and certain phased or sequenced frameworks, yet repeatedly failed to secure an immediate, unconditional cessation of hostilities. This failure was closely associated with U.S. vetoes and bargaining processes that converged around Washington's preferences, thereby sustaining a persistent divergence between humanitarian norms and the operational rules capable of constraining conduct. In the second part, the article argues that, from an Offensive Realist standpoint, structurally selective enforcement generates incentives for Iran to reduce reliance on institutional restraint and to pursue a calibrated maximization of deterrent and diplomatic leverage outside—and alongside—the UNSC framework. This recalibration is theorized as a form of "calibrated revisionism": not a wholesale attempt to overturn the international order, but a selective adjustment strategy aimed at mitigating asymmetric constraints and raising the costs of coercive alignment against Iran. In policy terms, the study identifies a multi-track package that includes networked deterrence, denial capabilities, wedge-driving diplomacy (alignment engineering to complicate counter-coalition formation), and legitimacy contestation in venues not subject to veto control. The article's overarching contribution is a two-level causal framework that links U.S. regime-maintenance dynamics to the persistence of a norm–rule gap at the global level and, at the regional level, to Iran's strategic adaptation in coalition management and leverage-building under conditions of institutional selectivity.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

U.S
UN Security Council
Gaza Crisis
International Regimes (Krasner)
Collective Security
Penholding
Institutional Selectivity
Iran's Strategic Recalibration
Calibrated Revisionism
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  • تاریخ دریافت 06 دی 1404
  • تاریخ بازنگری 04 اسفند 1404
  • تاریخ پذیرش 04 خرداد 1405