فصلنامه علمی راهبرد

فصلنامه علمی راهبرد

آینده‌های پیش‌روی صنعت پتروشیمی ایران: شبیه سازی فرصت ها و تهدیدهای آتی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 استادیار گروه مهندسی صنایع، دانشکده فنی و مهندسی، دانشگاه بین‌المللی اهل بیت(ع)، تهران، ایران
2 استادیار گروه آینده‌پژوهی، دانشکده حکمرانی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران
10.22034/rahbord.2025.504587.1774
چکیده
اهمیت و جایگاه صنعت پتروشیمی ایران را می‌توان از جایگاه سوم ذخایر نفت خام و دوم ذخایر گاز جهان و سهم از تولیدناخالص داخلی تبیین کرد. اما پیچیدگی‌های محیطی و تغییرات سریع در این صنعت، ترسیم آنچه پیش‌رو است را با ابهام و عدم‌قطعیت مواجه ساخته، لذا در این تحقیق برای درک بهتر آینده از روش‌های آینده‌پژوهی با محوریت روش سناریوپردازی استفاده شده است. ابتدا مساله کانونی تعیین و در گام بعد 36 عامل موثر بر آینده حاصل مطالعات کتابخانه‌ای، تطبیقی و مصاحبه با متخصصان شناسایی و توسط پرسشنامه اهمیت- عدم‌قطعیت تحلیل گردید. سپس بر اساس منطق ماتریسی حالت‌های مختلف دو پیشران سیاست‌های خارجی و سیاست‌های اقتصادی داخلی در 4 سناریوی ققنوس، روزنه، مرداب و دوزیست روایت گردید. در انتها ضمن برگزاری پنلی تخصصی و شبیه‌سازی سناریوهای تدوین شده، نقشه‌ای از وضعیت فرصت‌ها و تهدیدهای کلیدی در هر سناریو برای سیاست‌گذاری و تدوین برنامه‌های راهبردی و عملیاتی ترسیم گردید.
کلمات کلیدی: صنعت پتروشیمی، سناریوپردازی، شبیه‌سازی، ماتریس اهمیت- عدم‌قطعیت
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

Futures of Iran's Petrochemical Industry: Simulation of Emerging Opportunities and Threats

نویسندگان English

Mohammad Amin Ghalambor 1
Armin Firoozpour 2
1 Department of Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Technology and Engineering, Ahl al Bayt International University, Tehran, Iran
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Futures Studies, Faculty of Governance, University of Tehran, Iran
چکیده English

The strategic significance of Iran's petrochemical industry stems from the country's possession of the world's third-largest crude oil reserves, the second-largest natural gas reserves, and the substantial contribution of this sector to the national GDP. However, alongside its growing importance, increasing environmental complexity and rapid transformations surrounding the industry have intensified uncertainty regarding its future landscape and strategic orientation. To address these uncertainties and gain a deeper understanding of plausible futures, this study adopts a futures-studies approach centered on scenario planning. First, the focal issue of the research is defined. Subsequently, 36 key factors influencing the industry's future—identified through literature review, comparative analysis, and expert interviews—are analyzed using an importance–uncertainty matrix. Building on this, alternative states of two critical drivers—foreign policy and domestic economic policy—are combined using a matrix-based logic to construct four scenarios. Finally, following a specialized expert panel and simulation of the formulated scenarios, a comprehensive map of key opportunities and threats associated with each scenario is presented to inform policy formulation and the design of strategic and operational plans.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Petrochemical Industry, Scenario Planning, Simulation, Importance&‌ndash
Uncertainty Matrix
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  • تاریخ دریافت 16 بهمن 1403
  • تاریخ بازنگری 12 شهریور 1404
  • تاریخ پذیرش 07 مهر 1404