The significance and position of Iran's petrochemical industry can be attributed to its third-largest global crude oil reserves, second-largest natural gas reserves, and its contribution to the national GDP. However, environmental complexities and rapid changes in this industry have introduced significant uncertainty and ambiguity in forecasting its future. To better understand potential trajectories, this research employs futures studies methodologies, with a focus on scenario planning. Initially, the focal issue was identified, followed by the recognition of 36 key factors influencing the future through library research, comparative studies, and expert interviews. These factors were analyzed using an importance-uncertainty matrix. Based on a matrix logic, four scenarios—Phoenix, Glimmer, Swamp, and Amphibian—were developed, reflecting different combinations of two critical drivers: foreign policies and domestic economic policies. Finally, through a specialized panel discussion and scenario simulation, a comprehensive map of key opportunities and threats in each scenario was outlined to inform policy-making and the development of strategic and operational plans.
Keywords: Petrochemical Industry, Scenario Planning, Simulation, Importance-Uncertainty Matrix