National vision documents are among the most critical instruments for long-term governance, especially in contexts marked by volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity (VUCA). Iran’s Vision 2025 document, despite its ambitious aspirations, faced significant shortcomings, mainly due to its linear planning logic and neglect of uncertainty management. This study addresses this research gap by proposing a conceptual framework for Iran’s Vision 2051 that incorporates resilience, adaptability, and foresight. Drawing on theoretical foundations of comparative governance, resilient futures studies, and anticipatory governance, along with lessons from global practices such as Iraq, Ukraine, Finland, and Singapore, this paper develops a multi-dimensional model tailored to Iran’s unique conditions.
Methodologically, the study applies a qualitative content analysis of global foresight reports (OECD, UNDP, WEF) and national experiences of vision-making under uncertainty, complemented by theoretical synthesis. The findings highlight the necessity of three interrelated pillars for Iran’s Vision 2051: structural and institutional arrangements (a Supreme Council of Foresight, a Strategic Futures Center, and ministerial foresight units), content elements (identifying key uncertainties, scenario design, resilient and adaptive visioning, and embedding national resilience in economic, social, environmental, and cyber dimensions), and procedural elements (broad stakeholder participation, alignment of policies and budgets with the vision, and periodic revision mechanisms). The study also identifies four priority domains for Iran: strategic self-reliance alongside international engagement, social cohesion and human capital development, innovation and knowledge-based economy, and sustainable resource management under climate change.