فصلنامه علمی راهبرد

فصلنامه علمی راهبرد

سناریوهای واردات گاز از روسیه در چهارچوب دیپلماسی انرژی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 دانشجوی دکتری، دانشکده معارف اسلامی و علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه امام صادق (ع)، تهران، ایران
2 گروه روابط بین الملل، دانشکده حقوق و علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران
10.22034/rahbord.2025.496371.1764
چکیده
در دهه‌های اخیر، تجارت انرژی به ابزاری کلیدی در سیاست خارجی بازیگران عرصه بین‌الملل تبدیل شده است. قدرت‌های بزرگ از جمله چین، هند، اتحادیه اروپا وابستگی زیادی به تأمین‌کنندگان انرژی دارند. پس از جنگ اوکراین و افزایش منازعات میان اروپا و روسیه، کشورهای اروپایی تلاش کردند تا از وابستگی خود به مسکو بکاهند. این تصمیم موجب کاهش سطح صادرات انرژی روسیه گردیده و این کشور در جستجوی بازارهای جدید است. ایران به‌عنوان یک متحده بالقوه به دلیل وجود موقعیت جغرافیایی، گزینه کاهش بخشی از مازاد گاز روسیه است. در این پژوهش واردات گاز از روسیه از منظر سیاسی و اقتصادی مورد بررسی قرار گرفته و به این سؤال پاسخ داده می‌شود که چگونه واردات گاز از این کشور می‌تواند به ابزاری برای افزایش قدرت سیاسی-اقتصادی ایران در منطقه شود. با توجه به شرایط فعلی، از سرگیری صادرات گاز روسیه به اروپا نامحتمل است. همچنین، صادرات به چین در میان‌مدت به دلیل نگرانی از وابستگی به روسیه محقق نخواهد شد. ازاین‌رو، مهم‌ترین گزینه صادرات گاز به ایران است. گاز وارداتی از روسیه می‌بایست صرف صادرات به کشورهای همسایه گردد؛ این امر می‌تواند منجر به ایجاد وابستگی متقابل نامتقارن به نفع ایران در روابط با کشورهای منطقه شود و گامی اساسی جهت تبدیل ایران به مرکز مبادلات انرژی خاورمیانه و مصون‌سازی از تحریمها خواهد بود. در این پژوهش از روش آینده‌پژوهی (سناریونویسی) برای پیش‌بینی سناریوهای آینده طراحی شده‌است. روش گردآوری منابع نیز استفاده از منابع دسته اول، منابع کتابخانه‌ای و اینترنتی است.
کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله English

Scenarios for Importing Gas from Russia within the Framework of Energy Diplomacy

نویسندگان English

Mohammad Mojtaba Valadabadi 1
Hadi Gholamnia 2
Mohammad Amin Hazrati Razlighi 1
1 PhD Student, Faculty of Islamic Studies and Political Science, Imam Sadiq University, Tehran, Iran
2 Faculty of Law and Political Sciences, Tehran university, Tehran, Iran
چکیده English

In recent decades, energy trade has become a key element of foreign policy for major international players. Countries such as China, India, and the European Union remain heavily reliant on external energy sources. The conflict in Ukraine and rising tensions between Europe and Russia have prompted European nations to decrease their dependence on Moscow, resulting in a significant reduction in Russia's energy exports. In response, Russia has sought new markets for its energy resources. Iran, due to its strategic geographic location, is seen as a potential partner capable of absorbing some of Russia's surplus gas supplies. This analysis examines the prospects of importing Russian gas through political and economic perspectives, emphasizing how such imports could bolster Iran's regional influence. The findings indicate that resuming exports to Europe is unlikely, while large-scale exports to China are also improbable in the medium term because Beijing is hesitant to increase its dependence on Russia. Conversely, exporting gas to Iran appears feasible, especially if Iran re-exports the imported volumes to neighboring countries. This approach could create asymmetric interdependence in Iran's favor, support its goal of becoming a regional energy hub, and improve resilience against sanctions. The study employs scenario planning, a futures studies method, to explore potential future developments. Data sources include primary documents, library resources, and online materials.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Energy Diplomacy
Gas Imports
Ukraine War
Interdependence
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  • تاریخ دریافت 09 دی 1403
  • تاریخ بازنگری 27 اردیبهشت 1404
  • تاریخ پذیرش 29 خرداد 1404