فصلنامه علمی راهبرد

فصلنامه علمی راهبرد

سناریوهای فراروی بازار کار ایران با ظهور هوش مصنوعی در افق 1410

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 دانشجوی دکتری آینده‌پژوهی، دانشگاه بین المللی امام خمینی (ره)، قزوین، ایران.
2 دکترای آینده‌پژوهی و مدرس دانشکده مدیریت، علم و فناوری دانشگاه صنعتی امیرکبیر، تهران، ایران.
3 دکترای آینده‌پژوهی، مرکز تحقیقات سیاست علمی کشور، تهران، ایران.
چکیده
هوش مصنوعی به عنوان یک فناوری درحال تحول، مزایای اقتصادی و اجتماعی بسیار بزرگی برای آینده ترسیم کرده است. این فناوری می‌تواند در نحوه زندگی، کار، یادگیری، اکتشاف و تعامل انقلاب ایجاد کند. ‌این پژوهش با رویکرد آینده‌پژوهی و هدف ترسیم سناریوهای فراروی بازار کار ایران با ظهور هوش مصنوعی در افق 1410 انجام گردیده است. پژوهش حاضر از نظر هدف، کاربردی و از حیث ماهیت و روش، توصیفی اکتشافی است که بـر پایـه رویکـرد کیفی به‌منظور مفهوم‌سازی و ارائه تحلیل‌های تجویزی می‌باشد. شیوه‌های گردآوری اطلاعات و روش تجزیه و تحلیل، شامل بررسی کتابخانه‌ای علمی و تخصصی، ذهن‌انگیزی، پنل‌های خبرگی و بهره‌گیری از روش‌های آینده‌پژوهی نظیر چرخه آینده، تحلیل ذینفعان و مدل سناریوپردازی الگوی شبکه جهانی کسب و کار بوده است. با استفاده از ترکیب این روش‌ها، 9 کنشگر، 52 پیشران و چهار عدم قطعیت شناسایی شد که در نتیجه برهم کنش عدم‌قطعیت‌ها 16 حالت نااطمینانی به وجود آمد که در نهایت با تأیید خبرگان 5 سناریو باورپذیر ترسیم شد. این پنج سناریو که به نام‌های «خدمت‌پذیر هوشمند»، «مونوپولی»، «جهان سرافا»، «رقابت تخریبی» و «نیچ مارکت» نام‌گذاری شدند، می‌توانند مبنایی برای کمک به سیاست‌گذاری حوزه بازار کسب و کار و اشتغال در این حوزه باشند.
کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله English

Scenarios for Iran's labor market with the emergence of artificial intelligence in the horizon of 2032

نویسندگان English

Khalil Koulivand 1
MohammadMajid Fouladgar 2
Ahmad Borumand Kakhaki 3
1 Ph.D student in Futures Studies, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran
2 Ph.D. in future studies and lecturer at the Faculty of Management, Science and Technology, Amirkabir University of Technology, Tehran, Iran.
3 Ph.D. in Future Studies, National Research Institute for Science Policy (NRISP), Tehran, Iran
چکیده English

Artificial intelligence as an evolving technology, great economic and social benefits have been drawn for the future. This technology can be created in the way of life, work, learning, discovery and revolution. This research has been conducted with future research and the aim of drawing scenarios for the future of Iran's labor market with the emergence of artificial intelligence the horizon of 2032. The current research is applied in terms of its purpose and in terms of its nature and method, it is an exploratory description based on a qualitative approach in order to conceptualize and provide analysis. The methods of gathering information and the method of analysis and analysis included the examination of scientific and specialized libraries, brainstorming, news panels, and the use of future research methods such as the future cycle, stakeholder analysis, and the global business network scenario model. Using the combination of these methods, 9 actors, 52 drivers and four uncertainties were identified, and as a result of the interaction of uncertainties, 16 uncertain states were created, which were finally drawn with the approval of experts, 5 plausible scenarios. These five scenarios, which were named "smart service", "monopoly", "sarafa world", "destructive competition" and "markets", can be used to help policy making in the field of market and work in this field.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Iran's labor market
artificial intelligence
Drivers
uncertainties
scenario planning
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  • تاریخ دریافت 01 آذر 1401
  • تاریخ بازنگری 13 اسفند 1401
  • تاریخ پذیرش 20 فروردین 1402