نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
1 هیئت علمی دانشگاه عالی دفاع ملی
2 دانشگاه عالی دفاع ملی
عنوان مقاله [English]
Saudi Arabia is considered among the most influential countries in the Arab world. Countries such as Egypt, Syria and Jordan played a central, decisive and effective role in the politics of the Arab world in some historical periods. But in the current situation, such a special role and work is the responsibility of Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia has special economic capabilities, and over the past years, it has tried to play an effective role in line with the goals, policies and security desired by the United States in the regional environment through pragmatic mechanisms in parallel with tactical and selective offensive action. slow These efforts, along with Iran's position in the region and the world and some religious and ethnic divisions, have led to the formation of full-scale competition between the two countries before and after the Islamic Revolution. In this regard, the purpose of this research is to estimate the future scenarios of the political-security relations between the Islamic Republic of Iran and Saudi Arabia, despite the recent agreements and alliances such as the Ibrahim peace. This article is of a developmental-applicative type and an attempt has been made to describe the future of the aforementioned relations with the help of the GBN scenario writing method while analyzing the future of political-security relations between the Islamic Republic of Iran and Saudi Arabia. Collecting the required data with the help of documentary, library and focus groups, and in the quantitative part with the help of field surveys, interviews and questionnaires. The questionnaire data used to explore the drivers, key factors of change and uncertainties have been prioritized and weighted using quantitative methods. Finally, according to the key uncertainties extracted from the questionnaire, four scenarios 1) worst; Convergence of the Saudi Arabian community and non-revival of the JCPOA, 2) the best; The divergence of the Saudi Arabian community and the revival of the JCPOA, 3) the continuation of current trends; The divergence of the Saudi society and the non-revival of the JCPOA, 4) unbridled; The convergence of the Saudi Arabian community and the revitalization of the JCPOA have been formulated.