نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
عنوان مقاله [English]
Planning for the future of industries, in an uncertain situation, needs the development of a futuristic scenario. This requires knowledge, cost and time, and it is not possible for all small and large enterprises to do this. On the other hand, sometimes existing scenarios developed at different scales and approaches can be used for stakeholders in this area. The purpose of this article is to extract the relationship between industry-level and firm level scenarios in shoes industries. First, we identified different approaches to integrate scenarios. Then, by using the PESTEL and Porter methods, and by holding semi-structured interviews with industry experts, 30 effective factors were identified on the industry and 11 factors were extracted as important and uncertain factors. Finally, by using Micmac tool, two important uncertainties that are firm's size and competiveness were identified, and by using the GBN method, the four scenarios of Flying Elephants, Santa Claus’ Summer Cotton Shoes, Dinosaurs’ Age, and All Star Headman were extracted. In the next stage, by using Sourk approach in connecting scenarios and experts’ opinions, industry level scenarios were extended to credible scenarios at the firm’s level in small and large size in order to pave the way for better decision making by the firms’ managers. The results of this experience can be a step towards connecting and integrating scenarios.
کلیدواژهها [English]
)
