فصلنامه علمی راهبرد

فصلنامه علمی راهبرد

واکاوی قابلیت تبدیل تهدید به فرصت به مثابه قابلیت راهبردی در محیط‌های باپا: مطالعه موردی تحریم‌های ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده
استادیار دانشکده مدیریت راهبردی دانشگاه عالی دفاع ملی، تهران، ایران
10.22034/rahbord.2025.547298.1859
چکیده
محیط‌های بی‌ثبات، آشفته، پیچیده و مبهم (باپا)، چارچوبی کلیدی برای تحلیل شرایط پویای کسب‌وکار در جهان معاصر فراهم می کند. تحریم‌های اقتصادی غرب علیه ایران به عنوان یک تهدید راهبردی چندبعدی، نمونه‌ای برجسته از این محیط هاست که اقتصاد کشور را با چالش‌های عمیق مواجه کرده است. این پژوهش کیفی با رویکرد مطالعه موردی، چارچوبی یکپارچه برای تبدیل تهدید تحریم ها به فرصت های راهبردی در محیط باپا ارائه می دهد. این نوآوری نظری، شکاف موجود در ادبیات مدیریت راهبردی را پر می کند که عمدتا بر اثرات منفی تحریم ها متمرکز بوده و کمتر به فرآیندهای نظام مند تبدیل تهدید به فرصت پرداخته است. داده ها از طریق مصاحبه‌های نیمه‌ساختاریافته با 16 خبره (مدیران ارشد، سیاستگذاران و اساتید دانشگاه) و تحلیل اسناد معتبر گردآوری و با روش تحلیل مضمون بررسی شدند. یافته‌ها سه مضمون اصلی را شناسایی کردند: ساز و کارهای درون‌سازمانی (نوآوری فناورانه، چابکی راهبردی، توسعه برند داخلی)، ساز و کارهای برون‌سازمانی (دیپلماسی اقتصادی، تقویت همکاری‌های منطقه‌ای) و عوامل زمینه‌ای (تقویت سرمایه انسانی متخصص و توسعه اکوسیستم نوآوری). این مطالعه نشان می دهد که تحریم‌های اقتصادی با وجود چالش‌ها، می توانند از طریق فعال سازی این ساز و کارها، به خوداتکایی، تاب‌آوری و مزیت رقابتی منجر شود. چارچوب پیشنهادی با مطالعات جهانی بنت و لموین (2014) و تیس (2012) همسو است و راهنمایی عملی برای سیاست‌گذاران و مدیران در مدیریت راهبردی محیط‌های پویا ارائه می دهد و قابلیت تعمیم به سایر کشورهای تحت تحریم را دارد.
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

Exploring the Capability of Converting Threats into Opportunities as a Strategic Capability in VUCA Environments: A Case Study of Iran's Sanctions

نویسنده English

Meysam Farzin
Assistant Professor, School of Strategic Management, National Defense University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده English

Volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous (VUCA) environments provide a key framework for analyzing the dynamic conditions of contemporary business landscapes. Western economic sanctions against Iran, as a multidimensional strategic threat, represent a prominent example of such environments, confronting the country's economy with profound challenges. This qualitative research, employing a case study approach, presents an integrated framework for transforming the threat of sanctions into strategic opportunities within a VUCA context. This theoretical innovation fills a gap in the strategic management literature, which has primarily focused on the negative impacts of sanctions and paid less attention to systematic processes for converting threats into opportunities. Data were collected through semi-structured interviews with 16 experts (senior managers, policymakers, and university professors) and analysis of credible documents, and examined using thematic analysis. The findings identified three main themes: intra-organizational mechanisms (technological innovation, strategic agility, domestic brand development), extra-organizational mechanisms (economic diplomacy, strengthening regional collaborations), and contextual factors (enhancing specialized human capital and developing an innovation ecosystem). This study demonstrates that, despite the challenges, economic sanctions can lead to self-reliance, resilience, and competitive advantage through the activation of these mechanisms. The proposed framework aligns with global studies by Bennett and Lemoine (2014) and Teece (2012), offering practical guidance for policymakers and managers in strategically managing dynamic environments, and holds potential for generalization to other sanctioned countries.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Converting Threats Into Opportunities
Economic Sanctions
VUCA Environment
Strategic Capability
National Resilience
Self-Reliance
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  • تاریخ دریافت 24 شهریور 1404
  • تاریخ بازنگری 07 مهر 1404
  • تاریخ پذیرش 07 مهر 1404