فصلنامه علمی راهبرد

فصلنامه علمی راهبرد

ارائه الگوی خط‌مشی‌گذاری نوین بر اساس فراترکیب الزامات ژئوپلیتیکی: رویکرد آینده‌پژوهانه

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
محمدعلی کیانی 1
محمدرضا کاظمی 2
افسانه دهقان پور فراشاه 3
1 دکتری جغرافیای سیاسی، دانشکده جغرافیا، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.
2 دانشجوی دکتری آینده‌پژوهی، دانشکده حکمرانی دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.
3 استادیار، دانشکده حکمرانی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران
10.22034/rahbord.2025.538653.1839
چکیده
Background and Purpose: The contemporary world is experiencing a geopolitical "transitional period" in which traditional paradigms based on state-centrism and hard power have lost their efficacy. The emergence of new imperatives, such as techno-geopolitics, the centrality of identity (Geoculture), and the rise of non-state actors, has confronted policymakers with a fluid and unpredictable strategic environment. The primary objective of this research is to explain the nature of these new imperatives and to propose an effective policymaking model for adapting to this new context.
Methodology: This study employs a qualitative approach, utilizing the meta-synthesis method based on the Sandelowski and Barroso model. The analytical corpus consists of 61 specialized documents, including peer-reviewed academic articles and credible strategic reports, whose findings were systematically extracted, classified, and synthesized.
Findings: The findings reveal that four key imperatives (technological, identity, network, and geoeconomic) are redefining the concepts of power, sovereignty, and territory. This transformation is compelling policymakers to evolve from the traditional "Westphalian Actor" model to a new "Networked, Future-Oriented Actor" paradigm.
Conclusion: The new conceptual model for the policymaker is founded on capabilities such as systems thinking, mastery of smart power, multi-faceted diplomacy, and the use of futures-studies tools like scenario planning to manage uncertainty. For effective action in the new environment, strategic institutions must revise their structures and acquire these new capabilities.
کلیدواژه‌ها
ژئوپلیتیک نوین
خط‌مشی‌گذاری راهبردی
آینده‌پژوهی
قدرت هوشمند
تکنوژئوپلیتیک
موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

Synthesizing New Geopolitical Imperatives and the Transformation of Strategic Policymaking: A Meta-Synthesis with a Futurological Approach

نویسندگان English

Mohammadali Kiani 1
Mohammadreza Kazemi 2
Afsaneh Dehghanpour-Farashah 3
1 Ph.D. in Political Geography, Faculty of Geography, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
2 PhD Student of Futures Studies, Faculty of Governance, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
3 Assistant Professor, Faculty of Governance, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده English

The contemporary world is experiencing a complex geopolitical transitional period in which traditional state-centric paradigms and hard-power approaches have become increasingly inadequate. Emerging imperatives, such as techno-geopolitics, the centrality of identity and geocultural considerations, and the rise of influential non-state actors, have confronted policymakers with a fluid, unpredictable, and multi-dimensional strategic environment. In this context, the primary objective of this study is to explain the nature of these new geopolitical imperatives and to propose an effective conceptual framework for strategic policymaking that facilitates adaptation to the rapidly evolving global order. To achieve this objective, the research employs a qualitative meta-synthesis methodology based on the model developed by Sandelowski and Barroso. The analytical corpus comprises 61 specialized documents, including peer-reviewed academic articles and authoritative strategic reports. Findings from these sources were systematically extracted, classified, and synthesized through an interpretive process, enabling the development of an integrated framework rather than a mere aggregation of prior knowledge. The analysis reveals that four key imperatives—the technological, identity-based, network, and geoeconomic—are fundamentally reshaping the concepts of power, sovereignty, and territoriality. These transformations necessitate a shift from the traditional “Westphalian Actor” model toward a “Networked, Future-Oriented Actor” paradigm, in which policymakers must integrate new analytical and operational capacities. The proposed model emphasizes the cultivation of capabilities such as systems thinking, mastery of smart power strategies, multi-faceted diplomacy, and the application of futures-studies tools, including scenario planning, to anticipate and manage uncertainty. Strategic institutions, therefore, must revise their traditional hierarchical structures and invest in developing these new competencies to operate effectively within this complex and dynamic geopolitical environment.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

New Geopolitics
Strategic Policymaking
Futures Studies
Smart Power
Techno-Geopolitics
-      Abbasi Semnani, A. (2013). Iran's geopolitical position in the regional and world power relations. Sepehr Geographical Information Quarterly, 22(86), 96–104. [In Persian]
-      Ahmadi, E., Hafeznia, M. R., Ahmadipour, Z., & Ghaderi Hajat, M. (2025). An analysis of the geopolitical isolation of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Geopolitics Quarterly, 21(1), 36–68. doi: 10.22059/jphgr.2024.375498.1008018 [In Persian]
-      Ahmadi, S. A., & Ahmadi, E. (2017). A survey on the strategic capabilities of Chabahar free zone in line with the geopolitical weight and national power of Iran (from a domestic, regional, and international perspective). Rahbord (Strategy) Quarterly, 26(83), 235-262. [In Persian]
-      Ahmadi, S. A., Badiei Azandahi, M., & Heydari Moseloo, T. (2017). Theoretical explanation of the changing nature of geopolitical regions in the competition between powers. Geopolitics Quarterly, 13(47), 55–78. doi: 10.22059/jphgr.2017.63229 [In Persian]
-      Ahmadi, S., Hafeznia, M. R., & Hourcade, B. (2014). Explaining the functions of Iran's buffer status in the last two centuries. Geopolitics Quarterly, 10(36), 1–13. [In Persian]
-      Asarian Nejad, H., Rostami, M., & Modabber, L. (2014). The qualitative relation between the geographical environment and the national security. Geopolitics Quarterly, 9(32), 125–154. [In Persian]
-      A'zami, H. (2006). Geopolitical weight and regional power system (case study: Southwest Asia). Geopolitics Quarterly, 2(5), 149–193. [In Persian]
-      Badiei Azandahi, M., Yazdanpanah Dero, K., Vasegh, M., Ahmadi, A., & Salmanian, M. (2024). Noopolitik: A new paradigm in geopolitics. Geopolitics Quarterly, 20(3), 229–269. doi: 10.22059/jphgr.2024.375500.1008020 [In Persian]
-      Bahrami Jaf, S., Janparvar, M., Soltani, N., & Mohamadpour, A. (2022). Theoretical explanation of the effective components in geopolitical relations and presentation of the proposed model. Human Geography Research, 54(4), 1145-1166. doi: 10.22059/jhgr.2021.328331.1007718 [In Persian]
-      Dadandish, P. (2007). Geopolitical discourse in Central Asia: Arenas of interaction between Iran and Russia. Geopolitics Quarterly, 3(9), 75–96. [In Persian]
-      Dehghani Firoozabadi, S. J., & Chehrazad, S. (2024). The geopolitics of artificial intelligence: A theoretical guideline for the algorithmic competitions of global system actors. Geopolitics Quarterly, 20(3), 270–313. doi: 10.22059/jphgr.2024.376485.1008044 [In Persian]
-      Eivazi, M. R. (2016). Political futurology. Rahbord (Strategy) Quarterly, 25(79), 177-198. [In Persian]
-      Elahverdizadeh, R., & Ghaderi Hajat, M. (2024). Geopolitical requirements for empowering the southern coasts of Iran from the perspective of increasing maritime power. Geopolitics Quarterly, 20(77), 215–239. doi: 10.22059/jphgr.2023.361599.1007887 [In Persian]
-      Fathi, M. J., Abdokhodaei, M., & Shiravand, S. (2019). Analysis of Iran's geopolitical codes in the developments in the Middle East and its impact on the future of the Islamic Revolution. Pazhouheshnameh-e Enghelab-e Eslami (Research Letter of the Islamic Revolution), 9(32), 1–22. [In Persian]
-      Ghaderi, R. (2008). Development in the role of state and non-state actors according to the international law. Strategic Studies Quarterly, 11(39), 165–192. [In Persian]
-      Ghalibaf, M. B., Yaghoubi, S. M., & Mahmudi, A. (2014). The geopolitical explanation of Iran’s foreign policy in Persian Gulf region regarding fossil energies. Geopolitics Quarterly, 10(35), 56–75. [In Persian]
-      Ghasemi, F. (2010). A geopolitical model of regional security: A case study of the Middle East. Geopolitics Quarterly, 6(18), 57–94. [In Persian]
-      Ghasemi, F. (2012). Globalization and models of regional security in the global system. Geopolitics Quarterly, 8(27), 60–90. [In Persian]
-      Ghol-Karami, A., Karimipour, Y., Mottaghi, A., & Rabiee, H. (2018). Explaining the geopolitics of the foreign policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran with an emphasis on geoeconomic capabilities. Journal of Applied Research in Geographical Sciences, 18(49), 37–57. doi: 10.29252/jgs.18.49.37 [In Persian]
-      Hafeznia, M. R. (2014). Osoul va mafahim-e geopolitik [Principles and concepts of geopolitics] (4th ed.). Astan-e Qods-e Razavi Publications. [In Persian]
-      Hafeznia, M. R., Ezzati, E., & Lashgari, E. (2014). Theoretical explanation of the strategic region concept after the Cold War. Geopolitics Quarterly, 10(35), 1–29. [In Persian]
-      Hafeznia, M. R., Ghorbaninejad, R., Ahmadipour, Z., & Ghavam, A. (2014). Tension and conflict theories between countries: Review, critique and presenting a theoretical model. Geopolitics Quarterly, 9(32), 1–35. [In Persian]
-      Hazrati Razlighi, M. A., Javdani Moqaddam, M., & Gohari Moqaddam, A. (2023). Geopolitical challenges of Middle East peace talks with emphasis on "deal of century". Geopolitics Quarterly, 19(3), 155–186. doi: 10.22059/jphgr.2023.361598.1007886 [In Persian]
-      Heidarifar, M. R. (2010). A critical study of the discourse of borderless world. Geopolitics Quarterly, 6(18), 125–152. [In Persian]
-      Hemmati Far, H., Mottaghi Dastenaei, A., Rabiee, H., & Moghiseh, R. (2024). Explanation of Abraham Accord using grounded theory with a geopolitical approach. Geopolitics Quarterly, 20(3), 194–228. doi: 10.22059/jphgr.2024.372573.1007967 [In Persian]
-      Heydari, M., & Mohammadi, H. (2007). Geopolitical evolution of the last decade of the 20th century and their impacts upon the national security of the I.R. Iran. Geopolitics Quarterly, 3(10), 89–113. [In Persian]
-      Jamshidi, H., Mahkouei, H., Goudarzi, M., & Momeni, M. (2020). Geopolitical impact of national interest of the Islamic Republic of Iran on competition NATO and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in Central Asia. Rahbord (Strategy) Quarterly, 29(96), 103-136. [In Persian]
-      Jamshidi, M., & Yazdanshenas, Z. (2020). Power cycle theory and changes in the US relative power; A context for analyzing foreign policy behavior. Geopolitics Quarterly, 16(59), 52–82. [In Persian]
-      Jordana, J., Saz, A., Marx, A., Holesch, A., Vandendriessche, M., Coen, D., Levi-Faur, D., Roger, C., Zürn, M., Tokhi, A., Otteburn, K., Schmitt, L., & Moreno Villar, C. (2023). Trends in global governance and future scenarios 2030 (GLOBE Report). Centre for Security Studies (CSS), ETH Zurich.
-      Kamali, M., Nozari, F., & Tavasoli, F. (2023). Geopolitical territories and the dimensions of the sphere of soft influence of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the homogeneous geographical spaces surrounding the West Asian region in the geopolitical transition. Journal of Soft Power Studies, 13(3), 239–260. [In Persian]
-      Khadem, F. (2012). The geopolitics of emerging powers (BRIC) and the outlook of 2050. Geopolitics Quarterly, 8(26), 96–124. [In Persian]
-      KPMG International. (2025). Top geopolitical risks 2025. KPMG.
-      Lashani, M., Hajimineh, R., Daheshiar, H., & Alipoor, A. (2024). Iran's naval strategy in Southwest Asia and the North Indian Ocean. Rahbord (Strategy) Quarterly, 33(111), 349-374. doi: 10.22034/RAHBORD.2024.449939.1657 [In Persian]
-      Lashgari Tafreshi, E. (2015). Theoretical explanation of the geopolitical foundations of international relations knowledge after the Cold War. Journal of Applied Research in Geographical Sciences, 15(38), 49–69. [In Persian]
-      Malek Mohammadi, H. (2015). Techno-geopolitics; a pro-classical geopolitics challenging critical approach. Geopolitics Quarterly, 10(4), 109–121. [In Persian]
-      Mazaheri, M., Kamran Dastjerdi, H., Yazdanpanah Dero, K., & Vasegh, M. (2024). Explaining the role of geographical factors and geopolitical components in shaping geopolitics relations (with a critical and new approach). Geography (Journal of the Iranian Geographical Association), 21(79), 85-108. [In Persian]
-      Mirahmadi, F. S. (2017). Application of post-colonialism view in geopolitical analysis. Geopolitics Quarterly, 13(46), 121–150. [In Persian]
-      Mirheidar, D., & Hamidinia, H. (2006). Methodology and concepts in political geography and international relation: A comparative study. Geopolitics Quarterly, 2(1), 1–41. [In Persian]
-      Mirhosseini, F., & Eivazi, M. R. (2019). Future scenarios for the geopolitical position of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the West Asian regional power system in the 1410 horizon. Basij Strategic Studies Quarterly, 22(83), 143–169. [In Persian]
-      Mohammadi, H., & Zarei, B. (2024). An analysis of the US national security strategy regarding Russia's geopolitical behavior during the Joe Biden era (2020-2024). Geopolitics Quarterly, 20(3), 58–97. doi: 10.22059/jphgr.2024.372572.1007966 [In Persian]
-      Mohammadi, H., Zarghami, E., & Valizadeh, H. (2019). Analysis of the reasons for focusing the US strategy towards Asia-Pacific. Geopolitics Quarterly, 15(54), 173–195. [In Persian]
-      Morgado, N., & Kopanja, M. (Eds.). (2025). Geography, identity, and politics: Concepts, theories, and cases in geopolitical analysis. University of Belgrade - Faculty of Security Studies.
-      Mossalanejad, A. (2014). Geopolitics of identity and security policy in the regional balance of the Middle East. Geopolitics Quarterly, 10(34), 70–98. [In Persian]
-      Naderi, A. (2014). From state-centric geopolitics to civilization-centric geoculture: The Middle East as an arena of civilizational clashes. Journal of Soft Power Studies, 4(10), 123–142. [In Persian]
-      Najafi, S., Yazdanpanah Dero, K., Pishgahifard, Z., & Badiei Azandahi, M. (2023). Explaining the key political factors influencing Iran's defense power in the time horizon of 1410. Geopolitics Quarterly, 19(1), 69–95. doi: 10.22059/jphgr.2023.355153.1007804 [In Persian]
-      Nami, M. H., Mohamadpour, A., & Abbasi, A. (2009). Analysis of Iran's geoeconomic position in the Middle East. Geopolitics Quarterly, 5(14), 41–65. [In Persian]
-      Nozari, F. (2016). The impact of geopolitical interests of actors in the Sea of Oman region on the formulation of the defense strategy of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Defense Policy Journal, 24(95), 35–72. [In Persian]
-      Rabiee, H., Karimipour, Y., & Aboalkhani, A. (2017). Geo-culture and security, Israel's actions in Iranian culture territory (case study: India). Geopolitics Quarterly, 12(44), 66–85. [In Persian]
-      Rahmati Pour, L., & Ajili, H. (2016). The future perspective of Persian Gulf geo-energy and Iran's position. Rahbord (Strategy) Quarterly, 25(80), 87-116. [In Persian]
-      Roomina, E. (2020). Investigating the effect of geopolitical interests in creating regional challenges in Southwest Asia; Case study: Iran and Saudi Arabia. Quarterly Journal of Strategic Environment, 4(11), 127–148. [In Persian]
-      Sandelowski, M., & Barroso, J. (2007). Handbook for synthesizing qualitative research. Springer Publishing Company.
-      Saz‐Carranza, A., Rueda-Sabater, E., Vandendriessche, M., Moreno, C., & Jordana, J. (2023). The future(s) of global governance: A scenarios exercise. Global Policy, 14(S4), 1–13. doi: 10.1111/1758-5899.13280
-      Seong, J., White, O., Birshan, M., Smit, S., Lamanna, C., & Devesa, T. (2025). Geopolitics and the geometry of global trade: 2025 update. McKinsey Global Institute.
-      Shakouri, A., & Vaziriian, A. H. (2019). Assessing regional power of contemporary Iran: Comparing Pahlavi II and the Islamic Republic. Geopolitics Quarterly, 15(55), 25–57. [In Persian]
-      Sharifi, S., & Ajodani, F. (2013). The geopolitical requirements of the joint defense treaty of the Persian Gulf states. Military Science and Tactics, 9(23), 87–106. [In Persian]
-      Shirkhani, M. A., & Mohajerpoor, H. (2014). Iran's geopolitical status of metaphorically language, looking at the energy sphere. Geopolitics Quarterly, 10(34), 137–159. [In Persian]
-      Torkameh, A., Hafeznia, M., Roumina, E., & Ahmadipour, Z. (2022). A critical realist reading of critical geopolitics. Geopolitics Quarterly, 18(1), 1–43. doi: 10.22059/jphgr.2022.339688.1007689 [In Persian]
-      World Economic Forum. (2025). The global risks report 2025. World Economic Forum.
-      Yazdanpanah Dero, K., & Gholami, M. (2018). Strategic solutions for security doctrine in geopolitical transition period; The environmental, economic, locative-spatial and cultural attitudes. Geopolitics Quarterly, 13(48), 149–177. [In Persian]
-      Yousefi Kharaem, M., Yousefi, A., Ghasemi, H., & Darvishi Se Talani, F. (2021). Presenting a framework for analyzing defensive geopolitical issues based on strategic foresight. Defense Futurology Quarterly, 6(20), 115–136. [In Persian]
-      Zarei Daramroudi, H., Mohammadi, H., & Azizzadeh Tasouj, M. (2022). Geopolitical analysis of conflict-based behavior patterns and interactions in Iran-Saudi relations. The Fundamental and Applied Studies of the Islamic World, 4(2), 83–106. [In Persian]
-      Zarghani, S. H. (2010). A critique and analysis of models for measuring national power. Geopolitics Quarterly, 6(17), 149–180. [In Persian]
-      Zeinolabedin, Y., & Jamshidpour, I. (2020). A futurological study of the geopolitical impact of the drivers of war, Arabs, and oil on the center of the Islamic world. Political Researches of the Islamic World, 10(1), 241–267. [In Persian]
 

  • تاریخ دریافت 11 مرداد 1404
  • تاریخ پذیرش 07 مهر 1404