فصلنامه علمی راهبرد

فصلنامه علمی راهبرد

شناسایی و بررسی پیشران‌های جنگ ترکیبی آمریکا علیه ج.ا.ا ایران با رویکرد آینده‌پژوهی و ارائه راهبردهای مقابله‌ای

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 دانشیار گروه علوم سیاسی و مطالعات انقلاب اسلامی دانشگاه شاهد، تهران، ایران
2 دانشجوی دکتری مطالعات سیاسی انقلاب اسلامی دانشگاه شاهد، تهران، ایران
چکیده
مفهوم جنگ در عصر حاضر با تحولات پیچیده جوامع و متنوع‌تر شدن ابزارهای نوین تقابل، به شکل جنگ ترکیبی (هیبریدی) ظهور یافته است. این پژوهش با هدف شناسایی پیشران‌های مؤثر بر سیاست جنگ ترکیبی آمریکا علیه ایران و ارائه راهبردهای مقابله‌ای جمهوری اسلامی ایران با رویکرد آینده پژوهانه طراحی شده است. در همین راستا، سوال اصلی پژوهش آن است که پیشران‌های موثر بر پیشبرد سیاست جنگ ترکیبی آمریکا علیه جمهوری اسلامی ایران و راهبردهای مقابله با آن چیست؟ باتوجه به ماهیت پدیده جنگ ترکیبی و اقدامات آمریکا، نظریه واقع‌گرایی چارچوب نظری مورد استفاده در پژوهش است. با استفاده از روش کیفی اسنادی و سناریونویسی، پیشران‌هایی همچون تنش‌های سیاسی منطقه‌ای و بین‌المللی، تحریم‌های اقتصادی، جنگ سایبری، و نقش رسانه‌های نوین به عنوان محرکهای اصلی جنگ ترکیبی آمریکا تحلیل شده‌اند. در مقابل، اقدامات ایران در حوزه‌های دیپلماسی فعال، اقتصاد مقاومتی، امنیت سایبری، بازدارندگی نظامی و انسجام اجتماعی به عنوان راهبردهای مقابله کشورمان با جنگ ترکیبی آمریکا بررسی و درنظر گرفته شده‌اند. سناریوهای احتمالی آینده با درنظر گرفتن راهبردهای ایران در چهار چارچوب «کاهش تنشها»، «افزایش تنشها»، «تداوم وضعیت فعلی» و «جنگ تمام عیار» مورد تحلیل قرار گرفتند. راهبردهای انعطاف‌پذیر و چندوجهی ایران میتواند احتمال سناریوهای بحرانی را کاهش داده و تاب‌آوری ملی را در برابر جنگ ترکیبی افزایش دهد. یافته‌ها نشان می‌دهد سناریوی محتمل «تداوم وضعیت فعلی» با تأکید بر تعاملات محدود و فشارهای غیرمستقیم همراه است، اما راهبردهای ایران می‌تواند احتمال سناریوهای مطلوبتر مانند «کاهش تنش‌ها» را تقویت کند.
کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله English

Identifying and Examining the Drivers of the United States' Hybrid War Against the Iranian Nuclear Program: A Futures Research Approach and Countermeasure Strategies

نویسندگان English

Shohreh Pirani 1
Mina Afrazeh 2
1 Associate Professor, Department of Political Science and Islamic Revolution Studies, Shahed University, Tehran, Iran
2 PhD student in Political Studies of the Islamic Revolution, Shahed University, Tehran,
چکیده English

In the contemporary era, the concept of war has evolved into hybrid warfare, shaped by complex societal transformations and the diversification of confrontation tools. This research investigates the primary question: What are the key driving forces behind the United States' hybrid warfare policy against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and what strategies can Iran employ to counter it? The study adopts realism as its theoretical framework, aligning with the nature of hybrid warfare and U.S. foreign policy behavior. Utilizing a qualitative methodology based on documentary analysis and scenario-building techniques, the research identifies critical drivers of U.S. hybrid warfare, including regional and international political tensions, economic sanctions, cyberwarfare, and the influence of new media. In response, Iran's counterstrategies—namely, active diplomacy, a resistance economy, cybersecurity enhancement, military deterrence, and promotion of social cohesion—are analyzed. Four potential future scenarios are developed based on these dynamics: "reduction of tensions," "escalation of tensions," "continuation of the current status quo," and "full-scale war." The findings indicate that the most probable scenario is the continuation of the current situation, characterized by limited engagement and sustained indirect pressure. However, the implementation of Iran's flexible and multidimensional strategies may reduce the likelihood of crisis scenarios and enhance national resilience, thereby improving the prospects for a de-escalatory outcome.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Hybrid warfare
United States
drivers
counterstrategies
futures studies
Islamic Republic of Iran
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  • تاریخ دریافت 17 دی 1403
  • تاریخ بازنگری 17 بهمن 1403
  • تاریخ پذیرش 25 اسفند 1403