This study employs the Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) framework to explore possible future trajectories of religious identity in Iran, presenting four distinct scenarios. The Technology-Driven Scenario ("Digital Religion") envisions the integration of religion with digital technologies, whereby religious practices and rituals increasingly take place in virtual and online spaces. The Collapse Scenario ("Decline of Religious Identity") anticipates a marginalization of religion from the public and cultural spheres, reducing it to a private or symbolic phenomenon. The Continuity Scenario ("Sustainable Religion") posits that religion will maintain its role as a central cultural and social force while gradually adapting to societal changes through minor shifts in belief and practice. The Guardians of Values Scenario highlights the proactive role of individuals deeply committed to religious values who engage actively in preserving and disseminating religious norms within society.Building on these scenarios, the study offers policy-oriented recommendations in two domains: (1) social measures, including enhanced religious education and improved institutional engagement, and (2) cultural-economic strategies, such as addressing livelihood challenges and fostering supportive cultural environments. The findings suggest that overreliance on collective rituals—absent a strong foundation in religious knowledge, belief, and ethical reasoning—renders religious identity vulnerable to socio-technological disruptions. The research concludes by emphasizing the necessity of rethinking the paradigm of religious identity through the promotion of religious rationality alongside the preservation of ritual practices, in order to ensure a resilient, sustainable, and dynamic religious presence in contemporary Iranian society.