This paper examines energy imbalance and its trends in Iran up to 2040 while evaluating the impact of various policy scenarios on reducing energy imbalance and environmental pollution. The results indicate that without significant reforms in energy policies, Iran will face major challenges in energy imbalance and increased greenhouse gas emissions. However, implementing effective policies such as reducing fossil fuel subsidies, supporting renewable energy, and improving energy efficiency can fully resolve energy imbalance and significantly reduce pollutant emissions. In this study, four scenarios were developed through expert interviews and an analysis of the causes and status of energy imbalance in the country. Their impacts on energy imbalance and pollutant emissions were assessed up to 2040, and a policy framework (Scenario 4) was proposed. In Scenario 4, the elimination of energy subsidies and price controls, combined with energy efficiency measures, helps reduce energy demand growth and facilitates the transition to renewable energy by increasing investment opportunities. These reform policies have the potential for greater environmental benefits in the long term (by 2040), including a reduction of carbon dioxide emissions by up to 600 million tons annually. However, achieving these benefits depends on economic, political, and technological conditions and may be influenced by global uncertainties. Scenario 4 has the potential to address energy imbalance, enhance energy security, and improve Iran's environmental sustainability, provided that policies are effectively implemented and potential obstacles are properly managed.