جستاری در تحلیل رویکرد مطالعات آینده جامعه ایران در پرتو نگرش نسل‌های آینده‌پژوهی

Future studies in the modern era emerged to forecast science and technology trends, but with the passage of time, has undergone theoretical shifts. In this regard, thinkers introduced the concept of “foresight generations” to show gradual changes in axes, focuses, and differences of actors and dimensions within various models under the title of “foresight generations”. These experts maintain that the first foresight generation merely focused on science and technology, but the next generations shifted their attention to different fields of public policy. The main question of article is that the specifications of research and the Iranian foresight projects correspond to which generation of foresight, and what are their weaknesses. The second question is that how future studies can become an instrument for tackling general challenges of the society. The authors use Andersen's correspondence approach for building a conceptual model. Data collection was carried out by conducting an in-depth interviewing and documentary analysis, and findings were analyzed using the content analysis methodology in the framework of a classification extracted of Seritas and Andersen’s. The findings indicate that, first, the approach of foresight projects and programs in Iran, generally, stands in the first and second generations, so they have a logical and instrumental shortcomings to confront the current challenges. Secondly, Iran's scientific development in the arena of foresight has been unbalanced. Although,  during the last two decades, Iran has been well advanced in terms of techniques and technical implementation of projects (technical implementation of foresight projects), it falls short on the issue of relevancy with planning process, on the one hand, and participation in the processes. For this reason, promoting the status of future studies in Iran to play an effective role in policymaking depends on building a unified vision based on the consensus of the elites, developing the structure and proper governance process.