Strategy

Strategy

The Future of the Student Movement's Impact on Iran's Political Development in the Horizon of 1410: Identifying and Analyzing the Relationships of Key Drivers

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors
Mohammad Rahim Ayouzi 1
Mohmad hasini moghodam 2
Alireza Targhi 3
Sajjad Reyhani 4
1 Professor, Faculty of Governance, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
2 Associate Professor, Institute for Cultural, Social and Civilizational Studies, Futures Studies Group, Tehran, Iran
3 PhD, National Defense University, National Security Group, Tehran, Iran
4 PhD Candidate, Futures Studies Management, National Defense University, Tehran, Iran
10.22034/rahbord.2025.505138.1776
Abstract
Historical trends of the student movement in Iran demonstrate its consistent and significant role in political development. However, the dynamic nature of the environment and the presence of multiple uncertainties have rendered the future prospects of this influence ambiguous. Given the fundamental role of driving forces in shaping the future, identifying key strategic drivers—those with higher importance and uncertainty relative to other factors—provides a framework for envisioning scenarios and formulating strategies to maximize the potential of the student movement. This exploratory study aims to identify the key drivers influencing the impact of the student movement on Iran's political development by the horizon of 1410 and to analyze the relationships among them, thereby providing a basis for strategic recommendations. Data were collected and analyzed using a combination of library research, questionnaires, expert interviews, structural analysis, and the MICMAC software. The findings indicate that, among the ten drivers identified, six are considered particularly key in shaping the future impact of the student movement on Iran's political development. These include the influence of media, cyberspace, and social networks, which affect how information circulates and how students engage with political discourse; political developments within the country, reflecting shifts in governance, institutional stability, and policy priorities; changes in policies and governance practices, which determine the frameworks within which student activism can operate; transformations resulting from emerging technologies in society and universities, which create new opportunities and challenges for mobilization and knowledge dissemination; cultural and social developments, encompassing evolving norms, values, and societal expectations; and finally, generational changes among students, which shape attitudes, priorities, and capacities for political participation. Collectively, these six drivers represent the critical forces that will most strongly influence the trajectory and effectiveness of the student movement in the coming decade.
Keywords
Student Movement
Futures Studies
Drivers
Political Development
MicMac
Subjects
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  • Receive Date 07 February 2025
  • Revise Date 18 September 2025
  • Accept Date 21 September 2025