Historical trends of the student movement in Iran demonstrate its consistent and significant role in political development. However, the dynamic nature of the environment and the presence of multiple uncertainties have rendered the future prospects of this influence ambiguous. Given the fundamental role of driving forces in shaping the future, identifying key strategic drivers—those with higher importance and uncertainty compared to other factors—provides a framework for envisioning future scenarios and formulating strategies to maximize the capacities of the student movement.
This exploratory study aims to identify the key drivers influencing the impact of the student movement on Iran’s political development by the horizon of 1410 and to analyze the relationships among them, thereby providing a basis for strategic recommendations. Data were collected and analyzed using a combination of library research, questionnaires, expert interviews, structural analysis, and the MicMac software.
The findings indicate that, among ten identified drivers, six are considered key: “the impact of media, cyberspace, and social networks,” “political developments in the country,” “changes in policies and governance practices,” “transformations resulting from emerging technologies in society and universities,” “cultural and social developments,” and “generational changes among students.” The first four of these were classified as risk drivers. Results suggest that the influence of the student movement on political development may be either enhanced or constrained depending on the responses and strategies of relevant stakeholders. Accordingly, a set of strategic recommendations is proposed to strengthen the role of the student movement in shaping Iran’s political development.