Strategy

Strategy

A Methodological Framework for Developing Iran's National Vision 1430 under Hybrid Threats: A Futures-Oriented Approach

Document Type : Research Paper

Author
Davood Manzoor
Associate Professor and Director, Department of Energy Economics Imam Sadiq University, Tehran, Iran
10.22034/rahbord.2025.531780.1825
Abstract
Rapid global transformations across technological, economic, political, and environmental domains have increasingly challenged the effectiveness of traditional governance frameworks, highlighting the growing need for anticipatory and futures-oriented models of governance. In Iran, international sanctions, economic volatility, environmental vulnerabilities, and structural governance deficiencies have further intensified the urgency of adopting anticipatory governance as a strategic approach to managing uncertainty and shaping long-term national trajectories. This study addresses the following question: Which model of anticipatory governance can be designed and institutionalized in Iran by drawing on international experiences through a policy transfer approach, while remaining compatible with the country's institutional and cultural context? The research adopts a qualitative documentary methodology. First, the theoretical foundations of governance and futures studies are reviewed, tracing the evolution from classical and bureaucratic models toward networked, participatory, and anticipatory forms of governance. Second, key futures methods—including causal layered analysis, strategic foresight, scenario building, horizon scanning, and signals analysis—are examined. Third, employing policy transfer as an analytical framework, international experiences from the European Union, Singapore, South Korea, and the United Arab Emirates are analyzed to assess their potential for contextual adaptation in Iran. The findings indicate that establishing anticipatory governance in Iran requires comprehensive structural, policy, and cultural transformation. Institutionally, the creation of a National Futures Council and the establishment of specialized foresight units within ministries are essential for embedding foresight into decision-making processes. At the policy level, adaptive, learning-oriented policies grounded in multi-scenario planning can enhance national resilience under conditions of deep uncertainty. Culturally, improving futures literacy and enabling meaningful citizen participation in decision-making processes are critical components of sustainable anticipatory governance. Accordingly, the proposed model for Iran is built upon three interrelated pillars: the institutionalization of foresight, the development of adaptive policymaking mechanisms, and the strengthening of data-driven and cultural infrastructures to expand futures literacy across society.
Keywords
Anticipatory Governance
Futures Studies
Policy Transfer
Adaptive Policy
National Foresight
Subjects
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  • Receive Date 30 June 2025
  • Revise Date 26 August 2025
  • Accept Date 06 September 2025