Strategy

Strategy

Identifying and Examining the Drivers of the United States' Hybrid War Against the Iranian Nuclear Program: A Futures Research Approach and Countermeasure Strategies

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors
Shohreh Pirani 1
Mina Afrazeh 2
1 Associate Professor, Department of Political Science and Islamic Revolution Studies, Shahed University, Tehran, Iran
2 PhD student in Political Studies of the Islamic Revolution, Shahed University, Tehran,
10.22034/rahbord.2025.515283.1800
Abstract
In the contemporary era, the concept of war has evolved into hybrid warfare, shaped by complex societal transformations and the diversification of confrontation tools. This research investigates the primary question: What are the key driving forces behind the United States' hybrid warfare policy against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and what strategies can Iran employ to counter it? The study adopts realism as its theoretical framework, aligning with the nature of hybrid warfare and U.S. foreign policy behavior. Utilizing a qualitative methodology based on documentary analysis and scenario-building techniques, the research identifies critical drivers of U.S. hybrid warfare, including regional and international political tensions, economic sanctions, cyberwarfare, and the influence of new media. In response, Iran's counterstrategies—namely, active diplomacy, a resistance economy, cybersecurity enhancement, military deterrence, and promotion of social cohesion—are analyzed. Four potential future scenarios are developed based on these dynamics: "reduction of tensions," "escalation of tensions," "continuation of the current status quo," and "full-scale war." The findings indicate that the most probable scenario is the continuation of the current situation, characterized by limited engagement and sustained indirect pressure. However, the implementation of Iran's flexible and multidimensional strategies may reduce the likelihood of crisis scenarios and enhance national resilience, thereby improving the prospects for a de-escalatory outcome.
Keywords
Hybrid warfare
United States
drivers
counterstrategies
futures studies
Islamic Republic of Iran

Subjects

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  • Receive Date 06 January 2025
  • Revise Date 05 February 2025
  • Accept Date 15 March 2025