The recent military confrontations between the Zionist regime and the Islamic Republic of Iran have significantly reshaped the strategic and geopolitical landscape of the Middle East. These developments have not only brought the longstanding rivalry between Tehran and Tel Aviv into the open but have also become a decisive factor in shaping future regional security dynamics. In this evolving environment, Russia—a regional power with complex, quasi-strategic relations with both Israel and Iran—is reassessing its strategic positioning to safeguard its interests and expand its influence. This study, grounded in the neorealist theory of the balance of power, explores Russia's strategic approach in response to the escalation of tensions between Iran and the Zionist regime. The findings indicate that Moscow continues to employ a traditional dual-track strategy of "strategic patience" and "regional balancing." In the short term, Russia seeks to contain the conflict to preserve regional stability and protect its economic interests. In the medium term, it aims to expand its influence while avoiding deep entanglements. In the long term, Russia aspires to diminish U.S. influence in the region, positioning itself as a key geopolitical player. Given the strategic implications of this triangular relationship, the findings of this research are of particular relevance to regional policymakers and analysts seeking to recalibrate their national security and foreign policy strategies in light of evolving power dynamics.
Abuelghanam, D. (2024). Russia and NATO in the Middle East: Conflictual Relations Naser Tahboub. Jordanian Journal of Law and Political Science Volume, 16(1).
Aron, R. (2004). Paix et guerre entre les nations. Paris: Calmann-lévy.
Averbukh, L., & Klein, M. (2018). Russia-Israel relationship transformed by Syria conflict: political interests overshadow social and economic ties. Retrieved from: https://d-nb.info/1187191272/34.
Azizi, H., & Najafi, M. (2017). The Future of Iran-Russia Partnership in the Syrian Crisis. Political and International Approaches, 9(2), 67-95. [In Persian]
Chegenizadeh, G.A. (2013). China's balance of power and strategic relations with the United States. Foreign Relations Quarterly, 5(4), 227-263. [In Persian]
Dentice, G. (2019). Israel's Foreign Policy: No Change in Sight. Retrieved from: https://www.ispionline.it/en/publication/israels-foreign-policy-no-change-sight-22773
Golmohammadi, V., & Arm, A. (2023). Regionalization of Great Powers Intervention and Russia's Middle East policy. Iranian Research letter of International Politics, 11(2), -. doi: 10.22067/irlip.2022.71569.1120. [In Persian]
Haas, E. B. (1953). The balance of power: prescription, concept, or propaganda?. World Politics, 5(4), 442-477.
Hansen, B., Toft, P., & Wivel, A. (2008). Security strategies and American world order: Lost power. Routledge.
Jafari, A. A., & Shafaghatnia Abad, J. (2022). Influential Factors on Russia’s Decision Making toward Israel. Central Eurasia Studies, 15(1), 27-51. doi: 10.22059/jcep.2022.259681.449987. [In Persian]
Jervis, R. (1978). Cooperation under the security dilemma. World politics, 30(2), 167-214.
Karami, J. (2009). Iran and Russia: Eastern ally or southern threat? Foreign Relations Quarterly, 2(3), 171-199. [In Persian]
Karasova, T. A. (2019). Features of Israeli-American relations during the reign of the governments of B. Netanyahu and the administrations of B. Obama and D. Trump (2009–2019). Moscow: Institut vostokovedeniya RAN
Karimipour, D. (2011). Continuity and change in the foreign policy of the Russian Federation towards the Islamic Republic of Iran (2000-2010). (Nuclear case, legal regime of the Caspian Sea, sale of military weapons), master's thesis, Imam Sadiq University (AS). [In Persian]
Khokhlova, A. (2024). A Review of: Russian Foreign Policy Towards the Middle East. New Trends, Old Traditions, edited by Nikolay Kozhanov. Retrieved from https://oda.uni-obuda.hu/bitstream/handle/20.500.14044/25454/JCEEA_vol3_no1_Khokhlova.pdf?sequence=1
Khomeini, S. R. (1378). Imam Khomeini's Book: Collection of Imam Khomeini's Works (Quds Sareh), Volume 16, Tehran: Imam Khomeini Works Editing and Publishing Institute. [In Persian]
Kissinger, H. (2017). A world restored: Metternich, Castlereagh, and the problems of peace, 1812-22. Pickle Partners Publishing.
Klimburg, A., & Faesen, L. (2020). A balance of power in cyberspace. Governing Cyberspace: Behavior, Power and Diplomacy, 145-172.
Kofman, M., & Rojansky, M. (2018). What kind of victory for Russia in Syria. Military Review, 24(2), 6-23.
Korolev, A. (2018). Theories of non-balancing and Russia’s foreign policy. Journal of strategic studies, 41(6), 887-912.
Kozhanov, N. (2018). Russian policy across the Middle East: Motivations and methods. Chatham House-The Royal Institute of International Affairs, pp.1-34.
Kozhanov, N. (2024). IRAN-SAUDI RAPPROCHEMENT THROUGH THE PRISM OF PUTIN’S WAR IN UKRAINE AND RUSSIAN INTERESTS IN THE PERSIAN GULF REGION. RECONCILING RIVALS, 40.
Krasna, J. (2018). Moscow on the Mediterranean: Russia and Israel’s Relationship, the Foreign Policy Research Institute.
Krylov, A. V., & Mikaelian, A. A. (2024). Israel in the Context of the “New Bipolarity”. Vestnik RUDN. International Relations, 24(1), 23-39.
Lerman, E. (2018). Israel’s Remarkable Diplomatic Achievements in 2017. Retrieved from: https:// jiss. org.il/ en/ lerman- israels- remarkable- diplomatic- achievements-in-2017/
Mearsheimer, J. J. (2003). The tragedy of great power politics (Updated edition). WW Norton & Company.
Mearsheimer, J. J. (2018). The great delusion: Liberal dreams and international realities. Yale University Press.
Miremadi, T., & Shariatinia, M. (2014). Military interactions of the Zionist regime with Russia, India and China. Foreign Relations Quarterly, 7(2), -. 101-134, 1001.1.20085419.1394.7.2.6.5. [In Persian]
Morgenthau, (1948). Politics among nations: The struggle for power and peace. New York, 51973.
Nasr, V. (2024). Why Iran and Israel Stepped Back From the Brink, Retrieved from: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/israel/why-iran-and-israel-stepped-back-brink
niakoee, S., Sotoudeh, A. (2016). The Conflict Pattern of Regional and Global Actors In the Civil Wars of Iraq and Syria (2011-2015). Strategy, 25(3), -. [In Persian]
Pape, R. A. (2005). Soft balancing against the United States. International security, 30(1), 7-45.
Paul, T. V. (2005). Soft balancing in the age of US primacy. International security, 30(1), 46-71.
Paul, T. V., Wirtz, J. J., & Fortmann, M. (2004). Balance of power: theory and practice in the 21st century. Stanford University Press.
Popescu, N., Secrieru, S., Barnes-Dacey, J., Bechev, D., Borisov, T., Frolovskiy, D., ... & Trenin, D. (2018). Russia’s return to the Middle East. European Union Institue For Security Studies Chaillot Papers. no. 146. DOI:10.2815/639920.
Rakov, D. (2024). Russia’s Policy in the Middle East and Its Approach to the Gaza War. THE PARADOX OF POWER: Ukraine’s Struggle, Russia’s Dilemmas and Global Consequences, 92.
Rumer, E. (2019). The Primakov (not Gerasimov) doctrine in action (Vol. 5, No. 06). Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Rumer, E., & Sokolsky, R. (2021). Russia in the Mediterranean: Here to stay. Washington, DC: Carnegie endowment for international peace.
Salehiyan, T., & Mirzaei, V. (2021). Investigating the Balance of Power between Iran and the United States after the Islamic Revolution. Contemporary Researches on Islamic Revolution, 3(7), 53-74.
Shafaghatnia Abad, J., & jafari, A. A. (2020). Russia's Strategy and Behavioral Pattern in the Confrontation between Iran and Zionist Regime. Strategy, 29(1), 5-33. [In Persian]
Simbar, R., & Ghorbani, V. (2013). Impact Islamic Revolution of Iran on Israel and United States Relations. Islamic Revolution research journal, 3(7), 83-102. [In Persian]
Tavakoli, A., & Mahmoud Oghli, R. (2023). Threatening Components of Strategic Cooperation between Iran and Russia. Diplomatic Interactions, 1(1), 101-128. doi: 10.22034/dpiq.2023.194817. [In Persian]
Trenin, D. (2016). Russia in the Middle East: Moscow’s Objectives, Priorities, and Policy Drivers, Carnegie Moscow Center.
Walker, R. B. (1993). Inside/outside: international relations as political theory. Cambridge University Press.
Waltz, N. (1979). Theory of International Politics. New York: Random House.
Марьясис, Д. А. (2017). Перспективы развития российско-израильских торгово-экономических отношений. Международная торговля и торговая политика, (2 (10)), 125-135.
Fattahi Ardakani,H. (2024). Russia's Strategy Amid Rising Tensions Between Iran and the Zionist Regime: Short-, Medium-, and Long-Term Perspectives. Strategy, 33(3), 569-592. doi: 10.22034/rahbord.2024.474570.1716
MLA
Fattahi Ardakani,H. . "Russia's Strategy Amid Rising Tensions Between Iran and the Zionist Regime: Short-, Medium-, and Long-Term Perspectives", Strategy, 33, 3, 2024, 569-592. doi: 10.22034/rahbord.2024.474570.1716
HARVARD
Fattahi Ardakani H. (2024). 'Russia's Strategy Amid Rising Tensions Between Iran and the Zionist Regime: Short-, Medium-, and Long-Term Perspectives', Strategy, 33(3), pp. 569-592. doi: 10.22034/rahbord.2024.474570.1716
CHICAGO
H. Fattahi Ardakani, "Russia's Strategy Amid Rising Tensions Between Iran and the Zionist Regime: Short-, Medium-, and Long-Term Perspectives," Strategy, 33 3 (2024): 569-592, doi: 10.22034/rahbord.2024.474570.1716
VANCOUVER
Fattahi Ardakani H. Russia's Strategy Amid Rising Tensions Between Iran and the Zionist Regime: Short-, Medium-, and Long-Term Perspectives. Strategy, 2024; 33(3): 569-592. doi: 10.22034/rahbord.2024.474570.1716