Strategy

Strategy

Scenarios for Iran's labor market with the emergence of artificial intelligence in the horizon of 2032

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors
Khalil Koulivand 1
MohammadMajid Fouladgar 2
Ahmad Borumand Kakhaki 3
1 Ph.D student in Futures Studies, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran
2 Ph.D. in future studies and lecturer at the Faculty of Management, Science and Technology, Amirkabir University of Technology, Tehran, Iran.
3 Ph.D. in Future Studies, National Research Institute for Science Policy (NRISP), Tehran, Iran
10.22034/rahbord.2023.371074.1505
Abstract
Artificial intelligence as an evolving technology, great economic and social benefits have been drawn for the future. This technology can be created in the way of life, work, learning, discovery and revolution. This research has been conducted with future research and the aim of drawing scenarios for the future of Iran's labor market with the emergence of artificial intelligence the horizon of 2032. The current research is applied in terms of its purpose and in terms of its nature and method, it is an exploratory description based on a qualitative approach in order to conceptualize and provide analysis. The methods of gathering information and the method of analysis and analysis included the examination of scientific and specialized libraries, brainstorming, news panels, and the use of future research methods such as the future cycle, stakeholder analysis, and the global business network scenario model. Using the combination of these methods, 9 actors, 52 drivers and four uncertainties were identified, and as a result of the interaction of uncertainties, 16 uncertain states were created, which were finally drawn with the approval of experts, 5 plausible scenarios. These five scenarios, which were named "smart service", "monopoly", "sarafa world", "destructive competition" and "markets", can be used to help policy making in the field of market and work in this field.
Keywords
Iran's labor market
artificial intelligence
Drivers
uncertainties
scenario planning

Subjects

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  • Receive Date 22 November 2022
  • Revise Date 04 March 2023
  • Accept Date 09 April 2023