Horizon 2028: Scenario planning for human resources development in Iran's banking industry with the approach of cross impact analysis

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Assistant Professor, Department of Futures Studies, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran,

2 Master of Business Administration - Human Resources, Faculty of Economics, Management and Administrative Sciences, Semnan University, Semnan, Iran.

Abstract

The environment of most industries has become more uncertain and the growing uncertainty has led human resource planning to new approaches, including foresight. Iran's banking industry also needs to foresee its human resources development based on scenarios in order to face alternative futures and build a favorable future. Therefore, the current research was carried out with the aim of drawing scenarios for the development of human resources in the banking industry of Iran with the approach of mutual effect analysis, which in terms of practical purpose, in terms of mixed nature, and in terms of the implementation path, includes survey steps, mutual influence analysis matrix and scenario development method. The statistical sample of the current research includes experts who are academically or experimentally specialized in at least one of the three fields of foresight, human resource development, or banking, and have relative familiarity with the other two fields. Identification of experts was done with the help of "snowball technique" and continued until the data reached theoretical saturation. The Delphi method was used to identify the drivers of human resources development in the banking industry based on the opinions of experts. Based on the compatibility analysis of different states of key factors in the Scenario Wizard software, the feasibility of four scenarios with strong internal consistency was shown, and these scenarios were named and described. At the end of the research, suggestions were presented to the managers and trustees of the Iranian banking industry.

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History

  • Receive Date: 07 May 2023
  • Revise Date: 22 May 2023
  • Accept Date: 05 June 2023

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