Pathology of Cutting Natural Gas Feed Subsidies for Urea and Ammonia Production Plants in Iran Based on Economic Model Simulation

Economic assessment of big plans is a technologically complicated process and is accompanied with many difficulties. Since economic assessment requires a great deal of technical and economic information and many involved variables are random or based on probability, economic assessment is at best a difficult task. This is why an experimental example has been used in this study. Taking advantage of objective examples is because of the real figures and statistics that they provide. There are many risks in urea and ammonia projects including the risk associated with sale price of urea and ammonia product. This issue has been studied on the basis of a 10-year period series according to Monte Carlo simulation model. Assessment of capital and operational costs is highly uncertain. Therefore, when uncertainty increases from 5 percent to 10 percent, that economic project is highly at risk. Future parity rates of dollar, euro and other foreign currencies, pricing model used for natural gas, projection of the project’s income, product marketing and project management through and after commissioning are major issues which have great bearing on economic assessment of a project. This paper focuses on market price of products, internal rate of return and net value before analyzing sensitivity of the project.