فصلنامه علمی راهبرد

فصلنامه علمی راهبرد

پیامدهای جنگ اوکراین (2022) بر موقعیت ژئواکونومیک میان‌منطقه‌ای جمهوری اسلامی ایران: مطالعه موردی انرژی و ترانزیت

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده
دانشیار، گروه روابط بین‌الملل، دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران، ایران
چکیده
جنگ اوکراین برون­دادها و تبعات قابل توجهی را بر نظام بین‌الملل اعمال کرده است. ماهیت شدیداً اقتصادیِ جهان معاصر، تمرکز این پیامدها بر حوزه اقتصاد را بیشتر کرده است. با این حال در بررسی‌های تحلیلی، عموماً مناطق پیرامونی روسیه و به‌طور ویژه اروپا محور و مبنای تحلیل این برون­دادها بوده‌اند. چگونگی اثرگذاری این جنگ بر حوزه‌های دیگر کمتر مورد توجه قرار گرفته است. از این منظر و با توجه به موقعیت ژئواکونومیکی منحصر به فرد جمهوری اسلامی ایران در میان چند منطقه مهم شامل آسیای مرکزی، روسیه، جنوب آسیا، قفقاز جنوبی، عراق، شامات و حوزه خلیج‌فارس، در مقاله حاضر تلاش می‌شود تا چگونگی، سطح، جهت و عمق این اثرگذاری مورد بررسی قرار بگیرد. در این چهارچوب سؤال مقاله حاضر بر این امر استوار است که در حوزه انرژی و ترانزیت، جنگ اوکراین چه تأثیری بر موقعیت ژئواکونومیک میان‌منطقه‌ای جمهوری اسلامی ایران خواهد گذاشت؟ در پاسخ فرضیه پژوهش حاضر بر این امر استوار است که جنگ اوکراین می‌تواند در زمینه کریدورهای ترانزیتی، قابلیت‌های آلترناتیو برای صادرات نفت و ظرفیت‌های بالقوه گازی در شرایط جدید منجر به تقویت موقعیت ژئواکونومیک ایران شود. با این حال تحریم‌های آمریکا و عدم اولویت انرژی در روابط ایران و اروپا عوامل محدودکننده این اثرگذاری خواهند بود. مقاله حاضر با اتکا به روش تلفیقی کمی-کیفی مبتنی بر تحلیل محتوا و مفهوم‌سازی تئوریک ژئواکونومی و شبکه‌های میان‌منطقه‌ای و رویکرد توصیفی- تحلیلی در صدد پاسخ به سؤال اصلی و تأیید فرضیه است. در یافته‌های پژوهش با توجه به موقعیت ژئواکونومیکی منحصر به فرد جمهوری اسلامی ایران، پیامدهای تهاجم نظامی روسیه به اوکراین و تأثیرگذاری آن بر حوزه انرژی نه تنها با افزایش اولویت مسیرهای ترانزیتی قابل ارائه از سوی ایران مواجه هستیم؛ بلکه جنگ اوکراین همچنین پتانسیل تکمیل کریدور اقتصادی چین- آسیای مرکزی- غرب آسیا را با محوریت ایران افزایش داده و این موضوع می‌تواند فرایندهای مرتبط با توسعه زیرساخت‌ها و جذب سرمایه‌گذاری را تسریع نماید.
کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله English

Repercussions of the war in Ukraine (2022) on the cross-regional geo-economic situation of the Islamic Republic of Iran: a case study of energy and transit

نویسنده English

Seyed Hassan Mirfakhraei
Associate Professor, Department of International Relations, Allameh Tabatabai University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده English

The war in Ukraine has had significant results and consequences on the international system. The highly economic nature of the contemporary world has increased the focus of these consequences on the economic field. However, in the analytical studies, generally the peripheral regions of Russia and especially Europe have been the basis of the analysis of these outputs. The effect of this war on other areas has been less noticed. From this point of view and considering the unique geo-economic position of the Islamic Republic of Iran among several important regions including Central Asia, Russia, South Asia, South Caucasus, Iraq and Shamat, and the Persian Gulf, this article tries to find out how, level, direction And the depth of this influence should be investigated. In this framework, the question of the present article is based on the fact that in the field of energy and transit, what effect will the war in Ukraine have on the geo-economic position of the Islamic Republic of Iran? In response to the findings of this article, it shows that in the field of Iran's role in transit corridors, alternative capabilities for oil export, as well as potential capacities in energy transfer and gas export, the war in Ukraine has led to the strengthening of the geo-economic position of the Islamic Republic of Iran. This research was conducted using a qualitative method based on content analysis and theoretical conceptualization of geo-economy and inter-regional networks and a descriptive-analytical approach.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Energy
Ukraine war
Russia
Iran
Interregional geoeconomy
Transit
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  • تاریخ دریافت 29 دی 1402
  • تاریخ بازنگری 07 بهمن 1402
  • تاریخ پذیرش 22 اسفند 1402