نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 استادیار روابط بینالملل، دانشگاه عالی دفاع ملی، تهران، ایران
2 دانشجوی دکتری مطالعات امنیت ملی، دانشگاه عالی دفاع ملی، تهران، ایران.
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
Saudi Arabia is considered among the most influential countries in the Arab world. Countries such as Egypt, Syria and Jordan played a central, decisive and effective role in the politics of the Arab world in some historical periods. But in the current situation, such a special role is considered as the responsibility of Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia has special economic capabilities, and over the past years, has tried to play an effective role in line with the goals, policies and security priorities sought by the United States in the regional environment through pragmatic mechanisms in parallel with tactical and selective offensive action. These efforts, along with Iran's position in the region and the world and some religious and ethnic divisions, have led to the formation of a full-scale competition between the two countries before and after the Islamic Revolution. In this regard, the purpose of this research is to estimate the future scenarios of the political-security relations between the Islamic Republic of Iran and Saudi Arabia, despite the recent rapprochements and alliances such as the Abraham accords. This article is of a developmental-applicative type while an attempt has been made to describe the future of the aforementioned relations with the help of the GBN scenario writing method for the proper analyzing of the future political-security relations between the Islamic Republic of Iran and Saudi Arabia. the required data is collected through the analysis of documentaries, library sources and focus groups, and in the quantitative part with the help of field surveys, interviews and questionnaires. The questionnaire data used to explore the drivers, key factors of change and uncertainties have been prioritized and weighted using quantitative methods. Finally, according to the key uncertainties extracted from the questionnaire, four scenarios are formulated and examined: 1) the worst; Convergence of the Saudi Arabian community and non-revival of the JCPOA, 2) the best; The divergence of the Saudi Arabian community and the revival of the JCPOA, 3) the continuation of current trends; The divergence of the Saudi society and the non-revival of the JCPOA, 4) unbridled; The convergence of the Saudi Arabian community and the revitalization of the JCPOA.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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