تحلیل عوامل عدم تعادل فضایی منطقه کلان‌شهری تهران و سناریوهای آینده

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دکترای تخصصی برنامه ریزی محیط زیست- گروه برنامه ریزی، مدیریت و آموزش محیط زیست- دانشکده محیط زیست- دانشکدگان فنی- دانشگاه تهران- ایران

2 استادیار جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی شهری، دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه ارومیه، ارومیه

3 استادیار گروه مطالعات محیطی، پژوهشکده تحقیق و توسعه علوم انسانی (سمت)، تهران

چکیده

عدم تعادل فضایی در کلان‌شهر و منطقه کلان‌شهری تهران، علیرغم سابقه طولانی سیاست‌های تمرکززدایی، تشدید شده است. عوامل بسیاری در بروز این مسئله نقش داشته است، اما شناسایی عوامل پیشران­ به‌منظور شناختن جهت­گیری­های آینده ضروری است. هدف این پژوهش، شناسایی سطوح و خوشه­های عوامل این عدم تعادل فضایی و ارائه سناریوهای آینده بر اساس عوامل پیشران­ است. به این منظور، نظرات خبرگان درباره روابط عواملی که در پیشینه مطالعات شناخته شد، کسب و از مدل­سازی­ ساختاری- تفسیری در نرم­افزار MICMAC برای دسته­بندی این عوامل استفاده گردید. با به­کارگیری روش تحلیل اثرات متقابل برای عوامل پیشران در نرم­افزار Scenario wizard، سناریوهای منطقی شناسایی و تحلیل شد. بر اساس یافته­ها، عامل استقرار دولت به‌عنوان زیربنایی­ترین سطح و عامل الگوی استقرار جمعیت در بالاترین سطح شناخته شد. مهم‌ترین متغیرهای خوشه تأثیرپذیر شامل الگوی استقرار جمعیت و رشد فیزیکی بود. مهم‌ترین متغیرهای خوشه پیوندی شامل تمرکز صنعتی، مدیریت شهری، تمرکز سرمایه و تمرکز جمعیت بود. مهم‌ترین متغیرهای خوشه تأثیرگذار نیز شامل استقرار دولت، تمرکز تصمیم­گیری، تمرکز خدمات، تمرکز زیرساخت­ها، تمرکز اقتصاد، فعالیت­های فرا شهری و طرح­های شهری بوده است. از میان ده سناریوی منطقی، چهار سناریوی برتر بررسی شد. از میان این چهار سناریو، حتی اگر بهترین سناریو رخ دهد، هنوز نسبت به شرایط ایده­آل فاصله بسیار است؛ اما اگر سناریوهای نامطلوب رخ دهد، شرایط به حداکثر بحران ممکن، بسیار نزدیک خواهد بود. درنتیجه وضعیت عدم تعادل فضایی کلان‌شهر و منطقه کلان‌شهری تهران در آینده بیشتر رو به‌سوی بحرانی­تر شدن دارد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Analysis of Spatial Imbalance Factors in the Metropolitan Area of Tehran and Future Scenarios

نویسندگان [English]

  • Sayedeh Alemohammad 1
  • Ayoub Manochehri Miandoab 2
  • Majid Ramezani Mehrian 3
1 PhD graduate of environmental planning- Department of environmental planning, Management and education, School of environment, College of engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
2 Assistant Professor of Geography and Urban Planning, Faculty of Literature and Human Sciences, Urmia University, Urmia
3 Assistant Professor of the Department of Environmental Studies, Human Sciences Research and Development Research Institute (SAMT), Tehran
چکیده [English]

Spatial imbalance in Tehran's metropolis and the metropolitan area has intensified despite the long history of decentralization policies. Many factors have contributed to this problem, but it is necessary to identify the driving forces to know the future directions. The research seeks to identify the levels and clusters of factors of this spatial imbalance and present future scenarios based on driving forces. Experts' opinions were obtained about the factor relationships that were known in the subject literature. These factors were categorized by MICMAC software and Interpretive Structural Modelling. Also by Scenario wizard software and Cross-impact balance analysis, driving forces were analyzed and logical scenarios were presented. Based on the findings, the government establishment factor is the most fundamental level. The population settlement pattern factor is the uppermost level. The population settlement pattern and physical growth are the most important variables in the dependent cluster. Industrial concentration, urban management, capital concentration, and population concentration are the most important variables in the Linkage cluster. Government establishment, decision-making centralization, service centralization, infrastructure centralization, economy centralization, extra-urban activities, and urban plans are the most important variables in the effective cluster. Among the ten logical scenarios, the top four scenarios were considered. Even if the best scenario occurs, it is still very far from ideal conditions. But if unfavorable scenarios occur, the conditions will be very close to the maximum possible crisis. The spatial imbalance in Tehran's metropolis and the metropolitan area is going to become more critical in the future.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Spatial Balance
  • Cluster
  • Driving Force
  • Scenario
  • and Tehran
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