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آخرین شماره

No 84
Vol. 84 No. 26
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آخرین مقالات منتشر شده

Through recent decades, number of thinkers have proposed a set of assumptions or postulates for futures studies, representing the core substance of a cognitive-normative frame in this field. The adequacy of these propositions to shape the conceptual frame of futures studies, requires careful study alongside critical and strategic reflection. Therefore, the structural and content evaluation of these principal propositions by some of futurists and authors of this article is compiled and presented, that indicates crucial weaknesses and essential defects in those propositions.Generally, two main approaches could be considered for the enhancement of existing conceptual frames; revising current literature, or devising a basically novel frame. Both approaches demand the deep review of key concepts in current assumption sets. Therefore, in this research, an aggregated list of the main concepts of futures studies is presented. The study of these concepts in details, especially in the category of “actors”, reveals the hidden emphasis on humanism within all formal conceptual frames of futures studies. In these frames, the role of God’s will and his messengers in human life is completely neglected. Hence, the application of macro or micro concepts about God’s will in developing new conceptual frame would be a significant novelty for theists and especially, Muslim intellectuals
Mehdi Ahmadian - - AliAsghar Pourezzat
کلمات کلیدی : futures studies ، cognitive-normative frame ، postulate ، key assumptions ، humanism
Today, futures studies have begun their activities at the national level in the framework of some governmental institutions and some organizations have considered to develop strategic foresight and framework to improve their decision making and policy making processes and have done significant activities in this area. But regional strategic foresight has not yet played its theoretical and practical role in creating the future in the areas of governance in the Islamic Republic of Iran. This article attempts to review regional strategic foresight and its relationship with other concepts and processes and discusses the experiences of a leading country in the field of regional strategic foresight. Then, it develops an institutional model to establish the position of strategic regional foresight in the governance system of the Islamic Republic of Iran. This article is the result of a PhD thesis in futures studies that was written in 1395. According to the aim of this research, a mixed research method was chosen. In the first step, theoretical concepts were reviewed and developed. In the second step, a model was developed based on an interpretive structural modeling. The statistical population of this research consists experts in future studies and regional development, and the sampling method is target of sampling. Data gathering tool was interview and questionnaire and information obtained from experts was analyzed by Interpretative Structural Modeling Technique (ISM). Also, regional foresight practice is applicable by existing institutions in the governance system, but the proposed model requires other institutions that have not yet been established. The participation of various institutions plays a special role in improving the quality and comprehensiveness of strategic forecasting, as well as networking is one of the basic requirements for success of the model, also some of its collaborative institutions would be developing over time and would require network interaction.
Hassanali Asghari - Hakem ghasemi - Einollah Keshavarz Turk
کلمات کلیدی : strategic foresight ، regional foresight ، governance system ، foresight model ، Islamic-Iranian progress pattern
Economic and oil sanctions against the I.R.Iran have played an important role in the stagnation of Iran's oil industry in the last 10 years, especially after the sanctions were intensified in July 2012. Iran's ability to produce oil declined and its oil exports were decreased by 50 percent over this period. But, many analysts believe that the sanctions were not the only factor that affected Iran's petroleum industry and the problem of mismanagement among high-level executives and high-level managers in oil industry has played an important role in its growing stagnation. Some other experts emphasize the role of fluctuations in the world oil market. However, there is no accurate figures about the effects of each factors because of the existence of several variables but, this article by using Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method, explore the weight of each effective factor. The calculations based on this method show that from 2004 to 2014 mismanagement in oil industry was responsible up to 35/5 percent, mismanagement in high-level executives was responsible up to 33/5 percent and the economic sanctions responsible only up to 31 percent in the stagnation of Iran's oil industry. Based on the statistical data resulting from this research, we can study influential factors on oil industry development with a new attitude and put emphasis on the neccessity of removing existing obstacles and implementing institutional and structrual reforms to achieve the goal of oil industry development and eventually, sustainable development on the basis of developing comprenensive economic institutions.
Ahmad Saei - Maryam Pashang
کلمات کلیدی : stagnation in oil industry ، international sanctions ، mismanagement in oil industry ، mismanagement in high-level executives ، Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP)
To achieve the goals of resistance economy in Iran, the first step is to identify vulnerabilities that prepare ground for the enhancement of economic independence and the reduction of negative impact exerted by other countries on Iran’s economic growth. There are some important questions about resistance economy: What are the main obstacles for the realization of resistance economy in Iran? How can we identify these obstacles? With this argument that Iran’s economic vulnerabilities are most important obstacles for the realization of resistance economy in Iran, the following hypothesis is examined in this article: In recent years, Iran’s economic vulnerabilities in terms of its dependence on foreign investment in the energy sector, its dependence on oil’s exports and imports of petroleum products, especially gasoline, are major obstacles to the realization of resistance economy. This hypothesis is examined through "secondary analysis" of the data related to sanctions. By relying on secondary analysis, economic scattered data are analyzed in relation to these three issues: 1) process of changing the nature of sanctions from symbolic to practical; 2) Iran's economic situation in the three envisioned economic areas on the threshold of the aggravation of sanctions; 3) impact of sanctions on Iran. By analyzing these data, first we will show that sanctions by focusing on the three areas of Iran’s economic vulnerability have become non-symbolic and practical. Secondly, on the threshold of the aggravation of sanctions, Iran's vulnerability and dependence in these three economic areas were intensified. And thirdly, the impact of sanctions on Iran in these three areas would lead to economic pressure. According to these statistical secondary analyzes, we conclude that Iran’s weakness and vulnerability in these three areas, that are dependence on foreign investment in the energy sector and dependence on oil exports and imports of petrochemicals, constitute a major obstacle for resistance economy. So the first step to the realization of resistance economy, in the framework of a long-term strategy, is to reduce dependence on these three areas. This article, at the end, propose pragmatic suggestions for the impelementation of this strategy.
Mohsen Bayat
کلمات کلیدی : realization of resistance economy ، economic vulnerabilities ، sanctions agnist Iran ، embargo ، secondary analysis
Libyan crisis in 2011 posed many questions regarding the kind and method of reaction made by international community against current international humanitarian crises, especially in the Middle East and North Africa, due to the rapid and decisive reaction of the Security Council in the framework of the doctrine of responsibility to protect and NATO’s military intervention in this country. The opposing goals and interests of great powers in each of these crises and their efforts to ensure their national security and interests and to maximize their relative power and more importantly, the deterrent role of their old rivals in the target country or countries, have led to selective approaches to humanitarian crises including those of Libya and Yemen. In this article, Authors try to study the doctrine of responsibility to protect and meanwhile, to explain the approach taken by great powers, especially the permanent members of the Security Council, to Lybian and Yemeni crisies.
- Nozar Shafiee
کلمات کلیدی : doctrine of responsibility to protect ، humanitarian intervention ، Security Council ، human rights ، Libya ، Yemen

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